Orioles at Blue Jays
BAL7–
TOR4Last play · Alejandro Kirk grounds into a force out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out at 2nd.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
BAL 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 6 – 1 TOR
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colton Cowser doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Josh Smith. Samuel Basallo scores. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores. Heston Kjerstad to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% Orioles
9Brett Bateman homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Ernie Clement scores.7–4
7Coby Mayo homers (23) on a fly ball to left field.7–2
6Andrés Giménez grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Pete Alonso. Nathan Lukes scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 3rd.6–2
4Kazuma Okamoto homers (31) on a fly ball to right center field.6–1
2Dylan Beavers singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Heston Kjerstad scores. Colton Cowser scores.6–0
2Colton Cowser doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Josh Smith. Samuel Basallo scores. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores. Heston Kjerstad to 3rd.4–0
2Heston Kjerstad singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Gunnar Henderson scores. Samuel Basallo to 3rd. Christian Encarnacion-Strand to 2nd.2–0
1Dylan Beavers homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.