Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Kansas City ChiefsMarket
- Book
- -2.5
- o43.5
- Exchange
- -2.3
- 56% KC
- Volume
- 2146k
- contracts
Spreads are home-relative — negative means Kansas City Chiefs is favoured.
Our projection
how the number is built- Model
- -0.1
- Chiefs
- Win prob
- 50%
- Chiefs
- Likely range
- -16 to 17
- 8 in 10 games
- Rating gap
- 1550 − 1632 = -3.3 pts
- Shrunk ×0.644
- -2.1 pts
- Home field
- +2.25 pts
- Projected margin
- +0.1 Chiefs
Point differential, shrunk and adjusted for home field. Fitted on 1,087 games (2022–25) and scored on seasons it never saw: 12.9 points of error against 14.0 for no model. Against the closing line on a full season it went 133–133 — exactly even, and the closing line predicted the margin better than this did. Use it to understand a game, not to beat a price. Neither side has played yet, so both ratings are last season’s.
The matchup
form, ratings and the series
- Our rating
- 1632#8
- FPI rank
- #132026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
- Our rating
- 1550#12
- FPI rank
- #82026
- Record
- —not started
- Point diff
- —last season's rating
Last 5 meetings
Chiefs 1–4- 2025 wk 17Broncos at Chiefs20–13Broncos
- 2025 wk 11Chiefs at Broncos19–22Broncos
- 2024 wk 18Chiefs at Broncos0–38Broncos
- 2024 wk 10Broncos at Chiefs14–16Chiefs
- 2023 wk 8Chiefs at Broncos9–24Broncos
From the 2023 season on — earlier meetings are not stored.
Player props
exchangeThe exchange lists a separate contract at every rung of a player's stat, so what you get is the market's whole probability curve rather than one posted number. The implied line is where that curve crosses 50% — the number a book would post, derived rather than quoted.
3 more ladders hidden — too few priced rungs or too little trading behind them to read a curve from.
Order flow
6,000 trades · $228,467Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Share of money and share of trades among the side that crossed the spread to get filled, over the last 6,000 trades. This is exchange flow, not a sportsbook's handle — a different set of people, and a smaller pool.
Who has moved
consensus -2.4| Venue | Now | Moved | vs cons. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -2.5 | +0.5 | -0.1 |
| Kalshi | -2.3 | +0.03 | +0.1 |
Movement is measured from the first price we archived (2026-08-31), not from the market open. Spreads are home-relative.
Total · 43.5
854 trades · $50,637Trade count ahead of money — many small orders on this side.
Money ahead of trade count — fewer, larger orders on this side.
Read at 43.5, the strike the market itself prices nearest a coin flip. Far rungs carry more contracts but they are longshots, not a view on the total.
Notable trades
12 orders · 33% of the money- Kansas City Chiefs5,160 @ 0.56$2,890298×
- Kansas City Chiefs3,900 @ 0.56$2,184225×
- Kansas City Chiefs3,118 @ 0.56$1,746180×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,724 @ 0.56$966100×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,724 @ 0.56$966100×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,616 @ 0.56$90593×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,582 @ 0.56$88691×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,293 @ 0.56$72475×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,265 @ 0.56$70873×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,250 @ 0.56$70072×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,213 @ 0.56$67970×
- Kansas City Chiefs1,055 @ 0.56$59161×
Orders at least 5× the typical trade on this market (median $9.70), largest first, from the last 1,000 prints. Size, side and time are facts from the tape — who placed them, and why, is not something we can see.
Resting size
0.55 / 0.56 · 1¢ wideDollars waiting to be filled on each side — what has not traded yet, which is the opposite of a handle figure. Resting orders can be pulled, so this is a picture of intent, not a prediction.