Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Liberty gets at Coastal Carolina: 52nd at running it, against a unit 121st at defending the run. Where Coastal Carolina gets at Liberty: 36th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 96th at keeping everything in front of them. Liberty is also 51st at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 102nd.
How
LIBattacks
CCU
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
LIB#52 of 138CCU#121 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
LIB#51 of 138CCU#102 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
LIB#79 of 138CCU#124 of 138
HowCCUattacksLIB
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
CCU#36 of 138LIB#96 of 138
The two teams
Liberty
Liberty runs it: Jamey Chadwell's offenses have been run-leaning across 8 seasons. The way in is 119th at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 116th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Liberty has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#119projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#116projected
- Defenserunning it#114projected
Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina is in year 1 under Ryan Beard. The way in is 134th at staying on schedule through the air, and they are 131st on first and second down.
Coastal Carolina has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#134projected
- Offensefirst and second down#131projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1270, LIB Elo 1697 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU +11.2 (24% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
LIB108th58thCCUCCU44th62ndLIBThrough the air
LIB88th10thCCUCCU30th34thLIBOn the ground
LIB90th122ndCCUCCU81st95thLIBStaying on the field
LIB110th81stCCUCCU96th78thLIBTaking care of it
LIB48th9thCCUCCU48th46thLIB
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLiberty leads 7–6 · 54% have been one-possession games
| LIB | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.50 | allowed / drive | 2.58 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina?
Gridpex's model favors Liberty with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina?
The model projects Liberty by 11.2.
What time is Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina and what channel is it on?
Thu, Sep 24, 7:30 PM ET, at Brooks Stadium (SC).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →