Tulane vs. Army Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Tulane gets at Army: 45th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 119th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Army gets at Tulane: 4th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 94th at stuffing runs at the line. Tulane is also 56th in the push up front, against a unit 126th.
How
TULNattacks
ARMY
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TULN#45 of 138ARMY#119 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
TULN#56 of 138ARMY#126 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TULN#60 of 138ARMY#120 of 138
HowARMYattacksTULN
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ARMY#4 of 138TULN#94 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARMY#3 of 138TULN#62 of 138
The two teams
Tulane
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 108th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −26.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 132nd at hitting chunk plays, and they are 128th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#3projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#132projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1530, TULN Elo 1528 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -12.5 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TULN55th61stARMYARMY19th106thTULNThrough the air
TULN88th46thARMYARMY131st81stTULNOn the ground
TULN100th53rdARMYARMY1st132ndTULNStaying on the field
TULN99th73rdARMYARMY34th132ndTULNTaking care of it
TULN21st127thARMYARMY21st108thTULN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTulane leads 14–10–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| TULN | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 (#66) | CORE overall | -8.3 (#103) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | +2 / +11 |
| 1.41 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulane vs. Army?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 78% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulane vs. Army?
The model projects Army by 12.5.
What time is Tulane vs. Army and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET, at Michie Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →