Minnesota vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Minnesota gets at Purdue: 89th on first and second down, against a unit 132nd on early downs defensively. Purdue projects no clear way in against Minnesota. Minnesota is also 83rd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 121st.
How
MINNattacks
PUR
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MINN#89 of 138PUR#132 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
MINN#83 of 138PUR#121 of 138
The two teams
Minnesota
Minnesota runs it: P.J. Fleck's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 124th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 114th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −36.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Minnesota has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#124projected
- Offenserunning it#114projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#113projected
Purdue
Purdue is in year 2 under Barry Odom, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd on early downs defensively, and they are 126th at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−4.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −40.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Purdue has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensefirst and second down#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#126projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1326, MINN Elo 1452 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +6.5 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MINN77th113thPURPUR59th82ndMINNThrough the air
MINN23rd91stPURPUR12th29thMINNOn the ground
MINN133rd78thPURPUR81st103rdMINNStaying on the field
MINN34th84thPURPUR26th84thMINNTaking care of it
MINN21st108thPURPUR1st108thMINN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMinnesota leads 42–35–3 · 46% have been one-possession games
| MINN | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.8 (#114) | CORE overall | +3.0 (#59) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | +6 / +3 |
| 0.75 | points / drive | 3.78 |
| 5.00 | allowed / drive | 4.11 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| +28 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Minnesota vs. Purdue?
Gridpex's model favors Minnesota with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Minnesota vs. Purdue?
The model projects Minnesota by 6.5.
What time is Minnesota vs. Purdue and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →