Minnesota vs. Washington Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Washington gets at Minnesota: 13th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 98th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Minnesota projects no clear way in against Washington. Washington is also 9th on first and second down, against a unit 91st.
How
WASHattacks
MINN
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 23% this season, 2 games
WASH44%#13 of 138MINN45%#98 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 23% this season, 2 games
WASH53%#9 of 138MINN52%#91 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · 23% this season, 2 games
WASH-0.01#22 of 138MINN+0.26#82 of 138
The two teams
Minnesota
Minnesota runs it: P.J. Fleck's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The way in is 125th in the push up front, and they are 123rd at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −36.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Minnesota has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 18% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensethe push the line gets2.12#125 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.11#123 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve23%#120 of 138
Washington
Washington throws it: Jedd Fisch's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 8th at generating havoc. The way in is 136th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Washington has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss27.8%#8 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down53%#9 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss9.2%#11 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.99#136 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1757, MINN Elo 1452 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH -4.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MINN77th46thWASHWASH102nd82ndMINNThrough the air
MINN23rd47thWASHWASH51st29thMINNOn the ground
MINN133rd38thWASHWASH109th103rdMINNStaying on the field
MINN34th31stWASHWASH101st84thMINNTaking care of it
MINN21st5thWASHWASH1st108thMINN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MINN | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.8 (#114) | CORE overall | +10.9 (#34) |
| -5 / +8 | offense / defense | -1 / -12 |
| 0.75 | points / drive | 1.65 |
| 5.00 | allowed / drive | 1.09 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +28 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Minnesota vs. Washington?
Gridpex's model favors Washington with a 61% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Minnesota vs. Washington?
The model projects Washington by 4.6.
What time is Minnesota vs. Washington and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Husky Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →