UCLA vs. Maryland Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Maryland gets at UCLA: 60th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 127th at stuffing runs at the line. UCLA projects no clear way in against Maryland. Maryland is also 47th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 104th.
How
MDattacks
UCLA
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
MD#60 of 138UCLA#127 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
MD#47 of 138UCLA#104 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MD#81 of 138UCLA#132 of 138
The two teams
UCLA
UCLA is in year 1 under Bob Chesney. The strengths are defensive, led by 8th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 136th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 132nd at closing out passing downs.
UCLA has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#136projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
- Defensefirst and second down#131projected
Maryland
Maryland throws it: Mike Locksley's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 14th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 109th on first and second down.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Maryland has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#14projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#33projected
- Defensethrowing it#35projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down#109projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1495, UCLA Elo 1487 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD -0.9 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UCLA36th5thMDMD26th34thUCLAThrough the air
UCLA114th8thMDMD21st45thUCLAOn the ground
UCLA22nd5thMDMD23rd84thUCLAStaying on the field
UCLA54th29thMDMD17th88thUCLATaking care of it
UCLA48th22ndMDMD1st22ndUCLA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UCLA | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.5 (#26) | CORE overall | +5.1 (#52) |
| +8 / -8 | offense / defense | +1 / -5 |
| 3.18 | points / drive | 3.46 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +19 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UCLA vs. Maryland?
Gridpex's model favors Maryland with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UCLA vs. Maryland?
The model projects Maryland by 0.9.
What time is UCLA vs. Maryland and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at SECU Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →