Colorado vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Colorado gets at Baylor: 5th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 55th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Baylor gets at Colorado: 19th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 100th at closing out passing downs. Baylor is also 39th at throwing it, against a unit 108th.
How
COLOattacks
BAY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 49% this season, 2 games
COLO1.47#5 of 138BAY1.30#55 of 138
HowBAYattacksCOLO
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 20% this season, 2 games
BAY45%#19 of 138COLO31%#100 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 23% this season, 2 games
BAY+0.35#39 of 138COLO+0.25#108 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 23% this season, 2 games
BAY50%#26 of 138COLO36%#88 of 138
The two teams
Colorado
Colorado throws it: Deion Sanders's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 5th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 131st on first and second down, and they are 125th at keeping a clean pocket.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.47#5 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line40.5%#16 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensefirst and second down45%#131 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss15.2%#125 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground44%#122 of 138
Baylor
Baylor is in year 7 under Dave Aranda, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 19th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −1.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Baylor has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve45%#19 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points1.00#22 of 138
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground50%#26 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BAY Elo 1506, COLO Elo 1406 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BAY -7 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
COLO73rd22ndBAYBAY107th59thCOLOThrough the air
COLO50th43rdBAYBAY20th105thCOLOOn the ground
COLO60th33rdBAYBAY69th41stCOLOStaying on the field
COLO63rd99thBAYBAY82nd106thCOLOTaking care of it
COLO48th22ndBAYBAY124th46thCOLO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesColorado leads 10–7 · 41% have been one-possession games
| COLO | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.1 (#100) | CORE overall | +17.1 (#20) |
| -7 / +1 | offense / defense | +9 / -8 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 0.67 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Colorado vs. Baylor?
Gridpex's model favors Baylor with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Colorado vs. Baylor?
The model projects Baylor by 7.0.
What time is Colorado vs. Baylor and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at McLane Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →