Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 8.2 toward 
UGA
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | UGA −3 | UGA −11.2 |
 ALA win | 41% | 23% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. Georgia and Alabama rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at hitting chunk plays — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Georgia
Georgia is in year 11 under Kirby Smart, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 3rd at closing out passing downs. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −41.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Georgia has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
- Defenserunning it#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#134projected
Alabama
Alabama throws it: Kalen DeBoer's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 11th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −13.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensethrowing it#11projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Defensefirst and second down#12projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1859, UGA Elo 1948 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA +11.2 (23% to win) — 8.2 points clear of UGA's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UGA2nd11thALAALA84th1stUGAThrough the air
UGA17th35thALAALA72nd6thUGAOn the ground
UGA15th4thALAALA47th10thUGAStaying on the field
UGA11th1stALAALA34th80thUGATaking care of it
UGA48th22ndALAALA104th22ndUGA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAlabama leads 45–26–3 · 39% have been one-possession games
| UGA | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| +35.9 (#1) | CORE overall | +31.9 (#4) |
| +20 / -15 | offense / defense | +9 / -23 |
| 4.08 | points / drive | 3.38 |
| 1.24 | allowed / drive | 0.26 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 19% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Georgia vs. Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Georgia with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Georgia vs. Alabama?
The model projects Georgia by 11.2.
What time is Georgia vs. Alabama and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →