Vanderbilt vs. Auburn Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Vanderbilt gets at Auburn: 13th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 71st at closing out passing downs. Auburn projects no clear way in against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is also 10th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 62nd.
How
VANattacks
AUB
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 2 games in
VAN21%#13 of 138AUB31%#71 of 138 - 2
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 22% this season, 2 games
VAN50%#10 of 138AUB40%#62 of 138
The two teams
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is in year 6 under Clark Lea, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 107th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −12.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Vanderbilt has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offenserunning it+0.12#6 of 138
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air50%#10 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets2.97#12 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.33#107 of 138
Auburn
Auburn is in year 1 under Alex Golesh, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 7th at defending the run. The way in is 113th at throwing it, and they are 110th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Auburn has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defenserunning it-0.26#7 of 138
- Defensethe push the line gets2.11#9 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down41%#24 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethrowing it+0.16#113 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.19#110 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1678, VAN Elo 1746 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB +2 (46% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
VAN96th33rdAUBAUB61st48thVANThrough the air
VAN72nd117thAUBAUB47th52ndVANOn the ground
VAN89th25thAUBAUB24th28thVANStaying on the field
VAN104th62ndAUBAUB32nd4thVANTaking care of it
VAN21st22ndAUBAUB104th76thVAN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAuburn leads 21–20–1 · Vanderbilt has won 2 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| VAN | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.7 (#35) | CORE overall | +14.7 (#29) |
| +6 / -5 | offense / defense | +3 / -12 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 2.29 |
| 1.00 | allowed / drive | 0.65 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Vanderbilt vs. Auburn?
Gridpex's model favors Vanderbilt with a 54% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Vanderbilt vs. Auburn?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 2.0.
What time is Vanderbilt vs. Auburn and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →