Missouri State vs. UT Martin: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Missouri State0-1

UT Martin0-1

▸

Final

Graham Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MOST	7	0	7	17	31
UT M	17	7	0	14	38

MOSTTeam statsUT M

513Total yards512

402Pass107

111Rush405

26First downs24

10-213rd down7-14

2Turnovers0

33:40Possession26:20

Q4 1:45UT MSam Franklin 20 Yd Run (Aidan Laros Kick)31–38
Q4 5:21MOSTJacardia Wright 4 Yd Run (Owen Rozanc Kick)31–31
Q4 9:04UT MSam Franklin 49 Yd Run (Aidan Laros Kick)24–31
Q4 9:39MOSTJmariyae Robinson 10 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)24–24
Q4 14:15MOSTOwen Rozanc 38 Yd Field Goal 17–24
Q3 5:29MOSTDVontae Key 24 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)14–24
Q2 6:15UT MMarlon Cook Jr. 12 Yd pass from Kinkead Dent (Aidan Laros Kick)7–24
Q1 2:28UT MAustin Bray 3 Yd pass from Kinkead Dent (Aidan Laros Kick)7–17
Q1 7:16UT MAidan Laros 29 Yd Field Goal 7–10
Q1 12:20MOSTRaylen Sharpe 33 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Owen Rozanc Kick)7–7
Q1 14:43UT MSam Franklin 81 Yd Run (Aidan Laros Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

MOST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 40% success rate

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UT M (top)MOST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UT M 100%

Missouri State

PassJacob Clark 23/42, 332 YDS, 3 TD
RushJacardia Wright 18 CAR, 46 YDS, 1 TD
RecRaylen Sharpe 7 REC, 142 YDS, 1 TD

UT Martin

PassKinkead Dent 14/33, 107 YDS, 2 TD
RushSam Franklin 20 CAR, 259 YDS, 3 TD
RecDeVonte Tanksley 4 REC, 44 YDS

23sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

156

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UT M up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,139 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

88%

UT M went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WJacksonville State vs UTEP17-14 WMichigan State vs Central Michigan31-7 LTexas Southern vs Prairie View A&M34-37 WHouston vs UTSA17-14 WChattanooga vs Kennesaw State27-20

FAQ

What was the final score of Missouri State vs. UT Martin?

Missouri State 31, UT Martin 38.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UT M) was correct.

MOST

UT M

40%

Success rate

51%

0.52

EPA / pass

-0.23

-0.12

EPA / rush

0.86

34%

Early-down success

52%

46%

Pass success

32%

31%

Rush success

67%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

29%

Stuffed rush rate

58%

Pass rate

47%

7.5

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.1

MOST

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

UT M

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

MOST		UT M
513	Total yards	512
402	Passing yards	107
111	Rushing yards	405
26	First downs	24
10-21	3rd down	7-14
3-3	4th down	0-1
27/48	Comp/Att	14/33
8.4	Yards per pass	3.2
3.1	Yards per rush	9.9
2	Turnovers	0
2-20	Penalties	5-35
33:40	Possession	26:20

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

MOSTTeam statsUT M

Scoring plays

What the numbers say

Win probability

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Missouri State vs. UT Martin?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Missouri State vs. UT Martin: Final Score & Recap

MOSTTeam statsUT M

What the numbers say

What was the final score of Missouri State vs. UT Martin?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?