Eastern Washington vs. Montana State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Eastern Washington0-1

0014

Montana State7-2

▸0057

Final

Bobcat StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	7	7	0	14
MONT	14	27	10	6	57

EASTTeam statsMONT

394Total yards551

331Pass276

63Rush275

19First downs16

4-163rd down6-12

3Turnovers0

30:18Possession29:42

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:58MONTZac Crews 6 Yd Interception Return (Casey Kautzman PAT blocked)14–57
• Q3 8:01MONTCasey Kautzman 35 Yd Field Goal 14–51
• Q3 11:58EASTNolan Ulm 27 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)14–48
• Q3 12:45MONTLane Sumner 1 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)7–48
• Q2 0:18EASTBlake Gobel 8 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)7–41
• Q2 3:16MONTTy McCullouch 43 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–41
• Q2 8:20MONTScottre Humphrey 63 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Casey Kautzman PAT blocked)0–34
• Q2 11:35MONTTy McCullouch 51 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:46MONTSean Chambers 2 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:23MONTClevan Thomas 15 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–14
• Q1 4:45MONTSean Chambers 68 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

MONT −19.5

Against the number

MONT covered

line MONT −19.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

MONT 100%50%EAST 100%

Kickoff146 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

MONT (top)EAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MONT 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

MONT −19.5

Closing total

65.5

Model line

—

Actual result

EAST 14 – 57 MONT

Leaders

Eastern Washington

• PassKekoa Visperas 27/36, 329 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
• RushTuna Altahir 11 CAR, 51 YDS
• RecEfton Chism III 9 REC, 94 YDS

Montana State

• PassSean Chambers 4/4, 119 YDS, 3 TD
• RushScottre Humphrey 3 CAR, 84 YDS
• RecTy McCullouch 4 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

125

Points / snap

0.57

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

MONT up 37 entering the 4th quarter. Across 311 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

MONT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Washington vs Cal Poly48-16WWest Virginia vs BYU37-7WFurman vs VMI37-3WMiami vs Florida A&M56-9WUNLV vs Utah Tech72-14

Fourth downs

16 calls

EAST gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.EAST 7/10 · MONT 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Eastern Washington vs. Montana State?

Eastern Washington 14, Montana State 57.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (MONT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

EAST

MONT

37%

Success rate

40%

0.07

EPA / pass

0.78

-0.15

EPA / rush

0.52

40%

Early-down success

39%

43%

Pass success

48%

27%

Rush success

36%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

17%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

64%

Pass rate

40%

8.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

EAST

8.6 yards to go on 3rd down

73 scrimmage snaps

MONT

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

EAST		MONT
394	Total yards	551
331	Passing yards	276
63	Rushing yards	275
19	First downs	16
4-16	3rd down	6-12
1-2	4th down	1-1
30/41	Comp/Att	15/19
8.1	Yards per pass	14.5
2.0	Yards per rush	7.1
3	Turnovers	0
3-22	Penalties	5-65
30:18	Possession	29:42

Fourth downs

16 calls

EAST

7/10 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

MONT

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 8:36 EAST punt on 4th & 2 at EAST 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

EAST 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →MONT 8/14 scoring drives

EASTPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· opp 0Q1

MONTPUNT10 pl, 15 yds· own 36Q1

EASTPUNT4 pl, 31 yds· own 7Q1

MONTTD3 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q1

EASTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 0Q1

MONTTD4 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1

EASTFUM5 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q1

MONTTD2 pl, 2 yds· opp 2Q2

EASTINT5 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q2

MONTTD1 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2

MONTTD2 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2

EASTDOWNS12 pl, 64 yds· opp 0Q2

MONTTD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

EASTTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2

MONTEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 0Q2

MONTTD5 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q3

EASTTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

MONTFG7 pl, 48 yds· own 34Q3

EASTMISS9 pl, 56 yds· opp 0Q3

MONTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 20Q3

EASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 14Q3

MONTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 31Q3

EASTTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 13Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· opp 0Q4

MONTPUNT4 pl, 5 yds· own 16Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 30Q4

MONTPUNT7 pl, 29 yds· own 20Q4

EASTUncateg6 pl, 28 yds· own 13Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:58MONTZac Crews 6 Yd Interception Return (Casey Kautzman PAT blocked)14–57
• Q3 8:01MONTCasey Kautzman 35 Yd Field Goal 14–51
• Q3 11:58EASTNolan Ulm 27 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)14–48
• Q3 12:45MONTLane Sumner 1 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)7–48
• Q2 0:18EASTBlake Gobel 8 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Soren McKee Kick)7–41
• Q2 3:16MONTTy McCullouch 43 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–41
• Q2 8:20MONTScottre Humphrey 63 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Casey Kautzman PAT blocked)0–34
• Q2 11:35MONTTy McCullouch 51 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–28
• Q2 13:46MONTSean Chambers 2 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–21
• Q1 1:23MONTClevan Thomas 15 Yd pass from Sean Chambers (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–14
• Q1 4:45MONTSean Chambers 68 Yd Run (Casey Kautzman Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →