Liberty vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsULM
- Q4 1:44ULMCalum Sutherland 53 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 7:49LIBMalik Willis 53 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)28–28
- Q4 13:42LIBShedro Louis 7 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)21–28
- Q3 1:22ULMZach Rasmussen 14 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:37ULMAndrew Henry 40 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–21
- Q3 10:12ULMAbraham Alce 1 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–14
- Q3 11:09ULMAndrew Henry 12 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–7
- Q2 0:16LIBCJ Daniels 9 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)14–0
- Q2 5:11LIBMalik Willis 3 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and LIB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.7
- PassMalik Willis 16/28, 135 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushMalik Willis 23 CAR, 157 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDJ Stubbs 2 REC, 32 YDS
- RushAndrew Henry 15 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZach Jackson 4 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsULM up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:49LIB +42%
Malik Willis run for 53 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)
- Q3 1:22ULM +35%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 14 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK), (Calum Sutherland KICK)
- Q4 1:44ULM +31%
Calum Sutherland 53 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 13:42LIB +29%
Shedro Louis run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)
- Q4 1:38LIB +27%
Malik Willis sacked by Zack Woodard and Caleb Thomas for 0 yards to the Liber 27
- Q3 6:37ULM +27%
Andrew Henry run for 40 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. UL Monroe?
Liberty 28, UL Monroe 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LIB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LIB | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 386 | Total yards | 365 |
| 135 | Passing yards | 225 |
| 251 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 22 | First downs | 22 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-80 | Penalties | 2-17 |
| 32:50 | Possession | 27:10 |
Costliest call
Q1 7:34 LIB go for it on 4th & 10 at ULM 32. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.59 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:44ULMCalum Sutherland 53 Yd Field Goal 28–31
- Q4 7:49LIBMalik Willis 53 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)28–28
- Q4 13:42LIBShedro Louis 7 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)21–28
- Q3 1:22ULMZach Rasmussen 14 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:37ULMAndrew Henry 40 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–21
- Q3 10:12ULMAbraham Alce 1 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–14
- Q3 11:09ULMAndrew Henry 12 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)14–7
- Q2 0:16LIBCJ Daniels 9 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)14–0
- Q2 5:11LIBMalik Willis 3 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 973, LIB Elo 1688 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +26.2 (6% to win) — 6.3 points clear of ULM's market line of +32.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#13 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #1 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| LIB | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#47) | CORE overall | -18.5 (#110) |
| +4 / -4 | offense / defense | -13 / +5 |
| 2.77 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 1.80 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →