NC State vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NCSUTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 10:43WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.13–28
- Q4 10:43WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.13–27
- Q3 4:47NCSUNC STATE 20 yard field goal GOOD.13–21
- Q3 7:25WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.10–21
- Q3 7:25WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.10–20
- Q2 0:06WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.10–14
- Q2 0:06WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.10–13
- Q2 0:39NCSUNC STATE Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q2 0:39NCSUNC STATE pass complete for a touchdown.9–7
- Q2 8:28NCSUNC STATE 27 yard field goal GOOD.3–7
- Q1 2:14WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.0–7
How the model called it
- PassPete Thomas 27/43, 257 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushPete Thomas 15 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecQuintin Payton 6 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTanner Price 24/39, 268 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTanner Price 18 CAR, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Campanaro 12 REC, 153 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:25WAKE +23%
Tanner Price crossing pass complete to Jared Crump for 3 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 10:43WAKE +20%
Tanner Price pass complete to Michael Campanaro for 27 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:05WAKE +18%
Shadrach Thornton rush up the middle for 1 yard to the 50 yard line, tackled by Nikita Whitlock and Ryan Janvion for a 1ST down
- Q2 0:06WAKE +18%
Tanner Price post pass complete to Michael Campanaro for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:39NCSU +17%
Pete Thomas pass complete to Quintin Payton for 11 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:02WAKE +11%
Tanner Price pass incomplete, hurried by Mike Rose
FAQ
What was the final score of NC State vs. Wake Forest?
NC State 13, Wake Forest 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NCSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NCSU | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 372 | Total yards | 382 |
| 257 | Passing yards | 268 |
| 115 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 21 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/43 | Comp/Att | 24/39 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-74 | Penalties | 8-52 |
| 28:03 | Possession | 31:28 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 NCSU punt on 4th & 3 at WAKE 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.04 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:43WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.13–28
- Q4 10:43WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.13–27
- Q3 4:47NCSUNC STATE 20 yard field goal GOOD.13–21
- Q3 7:25WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.10–21
- Q3 7:25WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.10–20
- Q2 0:06WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.10–14
- Q2 0:06WAKEWAKE FOREST pass complete for a touchdown.10–13
- Q2 0:39NCSUNC STATE Extra point GOOD.10–7
- Q2 0:39NCSUNC STATE pass complete for a touchdown.9–7
- Q2 8:28NCSUNC STATE 27 yard field goal GOOD.3–7
- Q1 2:14WAKEWAKE FOREST Extra point GOOD.0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1222, NCSU Elo 1635 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE +14.1 (19% to win) — 6.1 points clear of NCSU's market line of +8. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #55 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →NC State leads 70–43–5 · 42% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →