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Which is the best college football conference in 2016?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2016

FBS medianBig 12FBS IndependentsSECACCMountain WestPac-12American Athlet…Sun BeltMid-AmericanBig TenConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big 121046.7%2.6%Oklahoma 50.8%
FBS Independents445.1%3.1%Army 47.9%
SEC1444.0%3.0%Alabama 47.5%
ACC1443.7%5.1%Clemson 50.0%
Mountain West1243.6%5.9%Air Force 47.8%
Pac-121243.5%6.1%Washington 50.9%
American Athletic1243.2%6.7%Navy 51.6%
Sun Belt1142.2%4.6%App State 45.5%
Mid-American1242.0%7.3%Western Michigan 53.0%
Big Ten1441.7%2.8%Ohio State 48.7%
Conference USA1341.3%4.0%Western Kentucky 53.5%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.