Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2016?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive allowed · 2016

FBS medianBig TenPac-12ACCSECAmerican Athlet…Big 12FBS IndependentsSun BeltMid-AmericanMountain WestConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big Ten141.90.993Michigan 0.787
Pac-12121.91.4Washington 1.3
ACC141.90.739Clemson 1.3
SEC142.10.788Alabama 0.593
American Athletic122.10.430UCF 1.4
Big 12102.10.679West Virginia 1.8
FBS Independents42.20.800BYU 1.6
Sun Belt112.30.942App State 1.3
Mid-American122.40.505Western Michigan 1.7
Mountain West122.60.535San Diego State 1.4
Conference USA132.70.533Western Kentucky 1.9

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.