Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2017?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive · 2017

FBS medianFBS IndependentsBig 12American Athlet…Pac-12SECSun BeltConference USAMountain WestACCMid-AmericanBig Ten

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
FBS Independents42.41.0Army 3.2
Big 12102.30.534Oklahoma 3.7
American Athletic122.30.988UCF 3.4
Pac-12122.30.837Washington 3.1
SEC142.20.601Alabama 3.0
Sun Belt122.10.843App State 2.5
Conference USA142.10.756Florida Atlantic 3.4
Mountain West122.00.870Colorado State 2.8
ACC141.90.606Louisville 2.9
Mid-American121.90.642Ohio 3.0
Big Ten141.80.532Penn State 3.2

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.