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Which is the best college football conference in 2019?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Third down conversion · 2019

FBS medianPac-12Big TenMountain WestFBS IndependentsBig 12Sun BeltSECMid-AmericanAmerican Athlet…ACCConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-121241.5%6.0%Utah 46.8%
Big Ten1441.5%11.9%Ohio State 56.5%
Mountain West1241.3%9.4%Air Force 54.5%
FBS Independents641.2%9.0%Army 46.1%
Big 121041.0%7.3%Oklahoma 50.3%
Sun Belt1040.8%12.3%Louisiana 47.3%
SEC1440.7%4.6%Alabama 52.3%
Mid-American1240.4%11.3%Ohio 50.0%
American Athletic1240.4%4.2%Memphis 47.9%
ACC1440.4%7.7%Wake Forest 48.2%
Conference USA1439.5%4.0%Western Kentucky 42.5%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.