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Which is the best college football conference in 2022?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2022

FBS medianPac-12ACCAmerican Athlet…Big 12SECBig TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestSun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-121247.7%10.6%UCLA 53.8%
ACC1444.1%6.4%Florida State 47.9%
American Athletic1143.9%4.6%UCF 47.9%
Big 121043.7%4.1%Texas 47.6%
SEC1443.5%7.9%Georgia 53.0%
Big Ten1442.0%6.2%Ohio State 50.7%
Conference USA1141.7%5.1%UTSA 47.4%
FBS Independents741.2%8.6%Notre Dame 46.7%
Mid-American1240.8%4.9%Eastern Michigan 45.9%
Mountain West1239.8%8.0%Air Force 49.3%
Sun Belt1439.8%5.9%App State 46.0%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.