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Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Offense success rate · 2015

FBS medianPac-12Big 12SECAmerican Athlet…Big TenFBS IndependentsACCMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Pac-121245.6%5.1%California 51.6%
Big 121045.3%6.3%Baylor 50.8%
SEC1444.7%7.2%Ole Miss 50.7%
American Athletic1243.4%6.7%Navy 49.0%
Big Ten1443.0%6.3%Ohio State 48.6%
FBS Independents342.9%6.4%Notre Dame 47.5%
ACC1442.8%4.3%North Carolina 50.0%
Mountain West1242.0%6.1%Colorado State 46.9%
Sun Belt1141.6%5.6%App State 46.8%
Mid-American1341.4%3.3%Bowling Green 49.6%
Conference USA1340.6%5.1%Western Kentucky 51.0%

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.