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Which is the best college football conference in 2017?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Points per drive allowed · 2017

FBS medianBig TenACCSECConference USABig 12Mid-AmericanPac-12FBS IndependentsSun BeltMountain WestAmerican Athlet…

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
Big Ten141.51.2Wisconsin 0.830
ACC141.90.532Clemson 0.901
SEC141.91.1Alabama 0.980
Conference USA142.10.686Marshall 1.6
Big 12102.10.896Texas 1.3
Mid-American122.20.882Northern Illinois 1.4
Pac-12122.20.653Washington 1.2
FBS Independents42.20.382Notre Dame 1.6
Sun Belt122.40.857Troy 1.5
Mountain West122.51.4Wyoming 1.4
American Athletic122.70.921South Florida 1.6

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.