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Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

CORE overall · 2015

FBS medianSECPac-12FBS IndependentsBig TenBig 12American Athlet…ACCMid-AmericanMountain WestConference USASun Belt

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC1413.222.7Alabama 35.0
Pac-121210.111.5Stanford 19.3
FBS Independents37.131.2Notre Dame 20.9
Big Ten144.39.2Ohio State 26.0
Big 12103.917.4Oklahoma 26.2
American Athletic123.716.2Navy 12.7
ACC143.114.5Clemson 38.0
Mid-American13-4.713.6Bowling Green 16.6
Mountain West12-9.919.0San Diego State 11.2
Conference USA13-16.423.3Western Kentucky 17.1
Sun Belt11-17.220.6App State 13.0

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.