Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2015?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Average starting field position · 2015

FBS medianAmerican Athlet…ACCPac-12SECBig 12Big TenFBS IndependentsMountain WestConference USASun BeltMid-American

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
American Athletic1231.44.2Temple 34.9
ACC1431.33.6Duke 34.4
Pac-121231.23.1Stanford 33.1
SEC1430.93.9Florida 34.4
Big 121030.83.4Kansas State 34.6
Big Ten1430.63.8Wisconsin 36.1
FBS Independents329.50.400Notre Dame 29.7
Conference USA1329.42.1Marshall 34.1
Mountain West1229.44.4Utah State 34.1
Sun Belt1129.24.8Georgia Southern 39.3
Mid-American1329.11.6Toledo 33.7

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.