Skip to content

Which is the best college football conference in 2021?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

CORE defense · 2021

FBS medianSECBig TenMountain WestBig 12Pac-12American Athlet…ACCConference USAFBS IndependentsSun BeltMid-American

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
SEC14-5.17.7Georgia -29.2
Big Ten14-4.010.9Wisconsin -20.1
Mountain West12-1.95.2San Diego State -14.1
Big 1210-1.15.3Oklahoma State -20.8
Pac-1212-0.5005.8Utah -9.4
American Athletic110.1808.0Cincinnati -13.9
ACC140.72010.7Clemson -15.7
Conference USA142.010.2UAB -3.9
FBS Independents72.227.1Notre Dame -10.5
Sun Belt102.68.7App State -10.4
Mid-American127.99.6Toledo -6.0

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.