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Which is the best college football conference in 2016?

Analysis

Every FBS team is a dot. Conference averages are not shown, and that is the point: the SEC’s mean is dragged up by four teams, the Big Ten’s spread is twice the Sun Belt’s, and a bar chart of means says none of it. What “compare the conferences” actually asks is how much of one league sits inside the other.

Defense EPA/play allowed · 2016

FBS medianACCBig TenFBS IndependentsSECAmerican Athlet…Sun BeltPac-12Big 12Mid-AmericanConference USAMountain West

One dot per team, one tick per conference median. Leagues are ordered by median, and the mean is deliberately not shown — four teams drag it and it hides how far the two distributions overlap.

ConferenceTeamsMedianSpreadBest
ACC140.0930.132Clemson -0.020
Big Ten140.0990.072Ohio State -0.058
FBS Independents40.1250.101BYU 0.060
SEC140.1250.124Alabama -0.120
American Athletic120.1330.118UCF -0.039
Sun Belt110.1350.135Arkansas State 0.012
Pac-12120.1390.164Washington -0.003
Big 12100.1680.067Kansas State 0.108
Mid-American120.1720.077Ohio 0.080
Conference USA130.1980.075Southern Miss 0.123
Mountain West120.2110.094San Diego State 0.040

Two numbers, not one

Median answers “how good is this league”. Spread — the interquartile range — answers “how evenly good”, and it is usually the more interesting of the two. A league with a high median and a huge spread is four contenders and eight teams padding their records, which is exactly the shape that produces a conference champion who keeps losing in January.

Note which metric you are looking at. CORE is opponent-adjusted, so it can be compared across leagues honestly. The raw metrics cannot: a conference that plays itself twelve times has its schedule strength baked into every raw number, which is the single most common way conference comparisons go wrong.