Villanova vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VILLTeam statsLOU
- Q4 7:04LOUMarquise Davis 4 Yd Run (Garth White Kick)13–59
- Q4 12:36LOUBraxton Jennings 2 Yd pass from Davin Wydner (Garth White Kick)13–52
- Q3 0:07LOUMarquise Davis 3 Yd Run (Garth White Kick)13–45
- Q3 3:42VILLDominic LeBlanc 29 Yd Field Goal 13–38
- Q3 7:50LOUBraxton Jennings 15 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)10–38
- Q2 1:53LOULincoln Kienholz 4 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)10–31
- Q2 13:24LOULawayne McCoy 61 Yd pass from Lincoln Kienholz (Carson Hilbert Kick)10–24
- Q2 14:50VILLJa'briel Mace 65 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)10–17
- Q1 0:14LOUJaleel Skinner 69 Yd pass from Lincoln Kienholz (Carson Hilbert Kick)3–17
- Q1 4:33LOULincoln Kienholz 19 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)3–10
- Q1 6:24VILLDominic LeBlanc 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:16LOUCarson Hilbert 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = VILL ahead, below = LOU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassPat McQuaide 18/31, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RushIsaiah Ragland 9 CAR, 34 YDS
- RecJa'briel Mace 3 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLincoln Kienholz 16/21, 332 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMarquise Davis 7 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLawayne McCoy 3 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Villanova vs. Louisville?
Villanova 13, Louisville 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| VILL | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 253 | Total yards | 635 |
| 178 | Passing yards | 375 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 260 |
| 15 | First downs | 29 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-8 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/34 | Comp/Att | 21/28 |
| 5.2 | Yards per pass | 13.4 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-64 | Penalties | 7-90 |
| 30:51 | Possession | 29:09 |
- Q4 7:04LOUMarquise Davis 4 Yd Run (Garth White Kick)13–59
- Q4 12:36LOUBraxton Jennings 2 Yd pass from Davin Wydner (Garth White Kick)13–52
- Q3 0:07LOUMarquise Davis 3 Yd Run (Garth White Kick)13–45
- Q3 3:42VILLDominic LeBlanc 29 Yd Field Goal 13–38
- Q3 7:50LOUBraxton Jennings 15 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)10–38
- Q2 1:53LOULincoln Kienholz 4 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)10–31
- Q2 13:24LOULawayne McCoy 61 Yd pass from Lincoln Kienholz (Carson Hilbert Kick)10–24
- Q2 14:50VILLJa'briel Mace 65 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Dominic LeBlanc Kick)10–17
- Q1 0:14LOUJaleel Skinner 69 Yd pass from Lincoln Kienholz (Carson Hilbert Kick)3–17
- Q1 4:33LOULincoln Kienholz 19 Yd Run (Carson Hilbert Kick)3–10
- Q1 6:24VILLDominic LeBlanc 35 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:16LOUCarson Hilbert 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -30.8 (97% to win) — 7.7 points clear of VILL's market line of -38.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →