Vanderbilt vs. Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Vanderbilt gets at Florida: 13th on first and second down, against a unit 78th on early downs defensively. Florida projects no clear way in against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is also 13th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 72nd.
How
VANattacks
FLA
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
VAN#13 of 138FLA#78 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
VAN#13 of 138FLA#72 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
VAN#9 of 138FLA#61 of 138
The two teams
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is in year 6 under Clark Lea, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at running it. The way in is 108th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −12.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Vanderbilt has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#2projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#2projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Florida
Florida is in year 1 under Jon Sumrall, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 114th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Florida has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#114projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Availability-adjusted projection
what the absences moveAvailability impact
Model estimateNo ruled-out starters
- Out Kahleil Jackson (WR)not quantified
Estimates from our player value-over-replacement model (reliable for QBs; softer elsewhere) — a calibrated prior, not a market or backtested figure. Context only, not a betting edge.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1658, VAN Elo 1746 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA +0.2 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
VAN96th26thFLAFLA5th48thVANThrough the air
VAN72nd77thFLAFLA19th52ndVANOn the ground
VAN89th43rdFLAFLA19th28thVANStaying on the field
VAN104th89thFLAFLA58th4thVANTaking care of it
VAN21st9thFLAFLA75th76thVAN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFlorida leads 44–11–2 · 35% have been one-possession games
| VAN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.54 | points / drive | 6.00 |
| 1.00 | allowed / drive | 2.10 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 9% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Vanderbilt vs. Florida?
Gridpex's model favors Vanderbilt with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Vanderbilt vs. Florida?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 0.2.
What time is Vanderbilt vs. Florida and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →