Utah State vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Utah State gets at Texas State: 29th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 113th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Texas State gets at Utah State: 22nd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 130th at generating havoc. Utah State is also 31st at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 85th.
How
USUattacks
TXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 53% this season, 2 games
USU1.35#29 of 138TXST1.32#113 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · 21% this season, 2 games
USU42%#31 of 138TXST39%#85 of 138
HowTXSTattacksUSU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 20% this season, 2 games
TXST14.4%#22 of 138USU9.9%#130 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 20% this season, 2 games
TXST+0.10#13 of 138USU-0.01#92 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected · 2 games in
TXST56%#3 of 138USU26%#79 of 138
The two teams
Utah State
Utah State throws it: Bronco Mendenhall's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 130th at generating havoc, and they are 122nd at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Utah State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.00#11 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.35#29 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve42%#31 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss9.9%#130 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line27.5%#122 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down36%#109 of 138
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at surviving second and twelve. The way in is 113th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 110th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −18.1% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensesurviving second and twelve56%#3 of 138
- Defensegetting stopped at the line27.3%#8 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.10#13 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.32#113 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points5.07#110 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1438, USU Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -0.1 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USU126th120thTXSTTXST98th41stUSUThrough the air
USU77th134thTXSTTXST102nd66thUSUOn the ground
USU113th98thTXSTTXST29th50thUSUStaying on the field
USU21st119thTXSTTXST19th65thUSUTaking care of it
USU137th109thTXSTTXST133rd129thUSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#64) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#43) |
| -3 / -4 | offense / defense | +9 / +2 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 4.15 |
| 45% | three-and-outs | 10% |
| -9 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Utah State vs. Texas State?
Gridpex's model favors Texas State with a 50% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Utah State vs. Texas State?
The model projects Texas State by 0.1.
What time is Utah State vs. Texas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET, at Bobcat Stadium (TX).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →