Texas State vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Texas State gets at Boise State: 15th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 130th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Boise State gets at Texas State: 47th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 121st at keeping everything in front of them. Texas State is also 6th at running it, against a unit 81st.
How
TXSTattacks
BOIS
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TXST#15 of 138BOIS#130 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
TXST#6 of 138BOIS#81 of 138 - 3
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
TXST#24 of 138BOIS#61 of 138
HowBOISattacksTXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
BOIS#47 of 138TXST#121 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
BOIS#32 of 138TXST#65 of 138
The two teams
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+6.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#6projected
- Offensethrowing it#9projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#121projected
Boise State
Boise State is in year 3 under Spencer Danielson. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. The way in is 130th at keeping everything in front of them.
Boise State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#14projected
- Defensefirst and second down#16projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#130projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1569, TXST Elo 1433 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -5.7 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TXST92nd132ndBOISBOIS125th112thTXSTThrough the air
TXST100th137thBOISBOIS105th128thTXSTOn the ground
TXST36th77thBOISBOIS120th99thTXSTStaying on the field
TXST23rd60thBOISBOIS121st111thTXSTTaking care of it
TXST133rd88thBOISBOIS1st88thTXST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TXST | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.5 (#46) | CORE overall | +6.3 (#48) |
| +8 / +2 | offense / defense | +3 / -3 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 2.25 |
| 5.78 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 42% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Texas State vs. Boise State?
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Texas State vs. Boise State?
The model projects Boise State by 5.7.
What time is Texas State vs. Boise State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET, at Albertsons Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →