South Dakota vs. Boise State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -26 (94% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
FAQ
Who will win South Dakota vs. Boise State?
Gridpex's model favors Boise State with a 94% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Dakota vs. Boise State?
The model projects Boise State by 26.0.
What time is South Dakota vs. Boise State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 10:00 PM ET, at Albertsons Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →
