San José State vs. Hawai'i Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Keys to this game
the three widest mismatches on the field
- 1
When SJSU runs
EPA per carry against the front that has to stop it
SJSU+0.01EPA/play+0.24
HAW - 2
When SJSU throws
EPA per dropback against the secondary that has to cover it
SJSU+0.42EPA/play+0.17HAW - 3
HAW on short yardage
power success — third and fourth and short, and the goal line
HAW80%power success93%SJSU
Each line is one unit's season average against the unit it will face. The bar shows how far apart they are relative to the rest of the country — it is a description of the matchup, not a prediction.
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where San José State gets at Hawai'i: 55th in the push up front, against a unit 128th at holding the line of scrimmage. Where Hawai'i gets at San José State: 59th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 134th at generating havoc. Hawai'i is also 74th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 137th.
HowSJSUattacksHAW
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 28% this season, 3 games
SJSU3.17#55 of 138HAW3.28#128 of 138
HowHAWattacksSJSU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 33% this season, 3 games
HAW17.0%#59 of 138SJSU13.3%#134 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 34% this season, 3 games
HAW18.4%#74 of 138SJSU12.7%#137 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 33% this season, 3 games
HAW3.56#66 of 138SJSU3.67#119 of 138
The two teams
San José State
San José State runs it: Ken Niumatalolo's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 10 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 4th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 137th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 134th at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San José State has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 32% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#4 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.7%#137 of 138
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss13.3%#134 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground53%#133 of 138
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 130th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 126th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 34% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.6%#130 of 138
- Offenserunning it-0.05#126 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.24#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1432, SJSU Elo 1413 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -33.7 (99% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SJSU68th119thHAWHAW124th78thSJSUThrough the air
SJSU49th96thHAWHAW42nd117thSJSUOn the ground
SJSU74th116thHAWHAW135th74thSJSUStaying on the field
SJSU104th108thHAWHAW71st110thSJSUTaking care of it
SJSU74th46thHAWHAW74th22ndSJSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan José State leads 22–21–1 · San José State has won 5 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| SJSU | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 (#67) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#123) |
| -4 / -4 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 2.39 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.44 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +17 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win San José State vs. Hawai'i?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 99% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San José State vs. Hawai'i?
The model projects Hawai'i by 33.7.
What time is San José State vs. Hawai'i and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 3, 11:59 PM ET, at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →