Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Neither side projects a clear way in. Sacramento State and Hawai'i rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at staying on schedule through the air — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is in year 1 under Alonzo Carter. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 108th at hitting chunk plays.
Sacramento State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line33.3%#130 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.10#108 of 138
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 130th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 126th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 34% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.6%#130 of 138
- Offenserunning it-0.05#126 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.24#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1432, SAC Elo 1324 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -10.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SAC120th119thHAWHAW124th99thSACThrough the air
SAC91st96thHAWHAW42nd93rdSACOn the ground
SAC110th116thHAWHAW135th75thSACStaying on the field
SAC117th108thHAWHAW71st37thSACTaking care of it
SAC124th46thHAWHAW74th76thSAC
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SAC | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -20.4 (#131) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#123) |
| -14 / +7 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 0.59 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 2.75 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +14 | pass over expected | +17 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i?
The model projects Hawai'i by 10.2.
What time is Sacramento State vs. Hawai'i and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 11:00 PM ET, at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →