North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where North Texas gets at Texas State: 40th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 121st at keeping everything in front of them. Where Texas State gets at North Texas: 6th at running it, against a unit 130th at defending the run. North Texas is also 15th at running it, against a unit 53rd.
How
UNTattacks
TXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UNT#40 of 138TXST#121 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UNT#15 of 138TXST#53 of 138
HowTXSTattacksUNT
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
TXST#6 of 138UNT#130 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TXST#16 of 138UNT#125 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
TXST#24 of 138UNT#133 of 138
The two teams
North Texas
North Texas is in year 1 under Neal Brown, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th in the push up front. The way in is 133rd at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 132nd at shutting down the ground game.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −21.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
North Texas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#6projected
- Offenserunning it#15projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#133projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#125projected
Texas State
Texas State is in year 4 under G.J. Kinne, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th at running it. The way in is 121st at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+6.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Texas State has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#6projected
- Offensethrowing it#9projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#10projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1433, UNT Elo 1694 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -4.7 (62% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNT68th112thTXSTTXST92nd96thUNTThrough the air
UNT62nd128thTXSTTXST100th84thUNTOn the ground
UNT64th99thTXSTTXST36th75thUNTStaying on the field
UNT52nd111thTXSTTXST23rd109thUNTTaking care of it
UNT31st88thTXSTTXST133rd14thUNT
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UNT | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.4 (#77) | CORE overall | +6.5 (#46) |
| +6 / +8 | offense / defense | +8 / +2 |
| 1.78 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 5.78 | allowed / drive | 5.78 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 11% |
| -13 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Texas vs. Texas State?
Gridpex's model favors Texas State with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Texas vs. Texas State?
The model projects Texas State by 4.7.
What time is North Texas vs. Texas State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 12:00 PM ET, at Bobcat Stadium (TX).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →