North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 34.8 toward 
SAC
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  NDSU −28 | SAC −6.8 |
| SAC win | 4% | 66% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where North Dakota State gets at Sacramento State: 38th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 91st at keeping everything in front of them. Sacramento State projects no clear way in against North Dakota State. North Dakota State is also 41st at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 90th.
HowNDSUattacksSAC
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 55% this season, 2 games
NDSU1.33#38 of 138SAC1.31#91 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU12.1%#41 of 138SAC14.4%#90 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 26% this season, 2 games
NDSU50%#40 of 138SAC43%#80 of 138
The two teams
North Dakota State
North Dakota State is in year 1 under Tim Polasek. The strengths are defensive, led by 10th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 106th at stuffing runs at the line.
North Dakota State has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.99#10 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line14.6%#106 of 138
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is in year 1 under Alonzo Carter. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 108th at hitting chunk plays.
Sacramento State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line33.3%#130 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.10#108 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SAC Elo 1324, NDSU Elo 1567 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SAC -6.8 (66% to win) — 34.8 points clear of SAC's market line of +28. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NDSU89th99thSACSAC120th30thNDSUThrough the air
NDSU86th93rdSACSAC91st15thNDSUOn the ground
NDSU77th75thSACSAC110th56thNDSUStaying on the field
NDSU73rd37thSACSAC117th54thNDSUTaking care of it
NDSU47th76thSACSAC124th3rdNDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NDSU | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.5 (#48) | CORE overall | -20.4 (#131) |
| +0 / -5 | offense / defense | -14 / +7 |
| 2.71 | points / drive | 0.59 |
| 1.47 | allowed / drive | 2.75 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State?
Gridpex's model favors Sacramento State with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State?
The model projects Sacramento State by 6.8.
What time is North Dakota State vs. Sacramento State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET, at Hornet Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →