Navy vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Navy gets at UTSA: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 75th at stuffing runs at the line. Where UTSA gets at Navy: 17th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 127th at keeping everything in front of them. Navy is also 21st at running it, against a unit 66th.
How
NAVYattacks
UTSA
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138UTSA#75 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#21 of 138UTSA#66 of 138
HowUTSAattacksNAVY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UTSA#17 of 138NAVY#127 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
UTSA#23 of 138NAVY#131 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UTSA#22 of 138NAVY#120 of 138
The two teams
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
UTSA
UTSA is in year 7 under Jeff Traylor, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 17th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 128th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UTSA has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#17projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#18projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#22projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#128projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1530, NAVY Elo 1550 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -12.1 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NAVY45th95thUTSAUTSA36th111thNAVYThrough the air
NAVY137th88thUTSAUTSA50th73rdNAVYOn the ground
NAVY1st127thUTSAUTSA48th7thNAVYStaying on the field
NAVY16th108thUTSAUTSA123rd27thNAVYTaking care of it
NAVY1st6thUTSAUTSA1st118thNAVY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NAVY | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 (#101) | CORE overall | +4.7 (#52) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | +3 / -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. UTSA?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. UTSA?
The model projects UTSA by 12.1.
What time is Navy vs. UTSA and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Alamodome.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →