Navy vs. Florida Atlantic: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsFAU
- Q4 1:46NAVYJ. Gutierrez run for 49 yds, for a TD (J. Gutierrez pass to V. Listorti GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)30–38
- Q4 3:12NAVYW. Adkinson run for -50 yds for a SAFETY22–38
- Q4 5:41NAVYJ. Gutierrez pass to Cha. Robinson for 8 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)20–38
- Q3 1:16NAVYJ. Gutierrez pass to J. Collins for 64 yds, for a TD (N. Bartley KICK)14–38
- Q3 2:39FAUC. Veltkamp pass to AJ Johnson for 5 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–38
- Q2 0:02FAUC. Rogers 60 yd FG GOOD7–31
- Q2 0:19FAUC. Veltkamp pass to D. Henry for 13 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–28
- Q2 5:26FAUC. Veltkamp pass to K. Valsin for 30 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–21
- Q1 6:59FAUC. Veltkamp pass to E. Messer for 36 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–14
- Q1 13:12NAVYB. Woodson run for 48 yds, for a TD (N. Bartley KICK)7–7
- Q1 14:18FAUC. Veltkamp pass to E. Messer for 76 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NAVY won this on the ground — that lane, not the scoreboard, was the story against FAU. +0.25 vs -0.06 EPA/play
- FAU kept reaching scoring range and leaving points there — the drives worked, the finishes did not. 3.3 pts per trip vs 5.4
- NAVY lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 40% success rate
Navy won 42-32 in the last meeting, and nothing about Florida Atlantic's front or Navy's ground game has changed the shape of that afternoon.
Navy sits 23rd in adjusted efficiency through last season and Florida Atlantic 87th, about 10 points per 100 plays apart. The widest gap on this field is Navy's offense against Florida Atlantic's defense at +2.98. These two played last season and Navy won 42-32, and the projected 30-21 finish here lives in the same neighborhood: a Navy win that arrives in points, not in stops.
- PassJackson Gutierrez 6/12, 100 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBraxton Woodson 12 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Collins 2 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCaden Veltkamp 27/32, 386 YDS, 5 TD
- RushEthan Ervin 17 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecEaston Messer 8 REC, 179 YDS, 2 TD
- Q1 6:59FAU +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep middle to #8 E.Messer caught at Navy08, for 36 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 13:12NAVY +13%
Shotgun #5 B.Woodson rush left for 48 yards gain to the FAU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD
- Q1 14:18FAU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep middle to #8 E.Messer caught at Navy35, for 76 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 5:26FAU +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 C.Veltkamp pass complete deep right to #2 K.Valsin caught at Navy00, for 30 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Florida Atlantic?
Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (FAU) was correct.
| NAVY | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| 393 | Total yards | 428 |
| 147 | Passing yards | 386 |
| 246 | Rushing yards | 42 |
| 18 | First downs | 27 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 9/23 | Comp/Att | 27/33 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 1.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-70 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 26:10 | Possession | 33:50 |
- FAUEnd Of Quarter6 plays · 9 yds · from FAU 35 · Q4 1:46−1.3 EPA
- NAVYTouchdown6 plays · 58 yds · from NAVY 20 · Q4 3:07−0.4 EPA
- FAUSafety4 plays · -5 yds · from NAVY 45 · Q4 4:48−3.5 EPA
- NAVYDowns4 plays · 4 yds · from NAVY 35 · Q4 5:38+2.1 EPA
- NAVYTouchdown11 plays · 85 yds · from NAVY 15 · Q4 11:05+2.6 EPA
- FAUPunt10 plays · 45 yds · from FAU 35 · Q3 1:09−2.1 EPA
- NAVYTouchdown3 plays · 67 yds · from NAVY 35 · Q3 2:39+0.9 EPA
- FAUTouchdown16 plays · 80 yds · from FAU 20 · Q3 9:41+5.8 EPA
- NAVYPunt9 plays · 23 yds · from NAVY 35 · Q3 15:00+2.0 EPA
- FAUField Goal2 plays · 0 yds · from NAVY 47 · Q2 0:02+0.1 EPA+1% WP
- NAVYInterception2 plays · 12 yds · from NAVY 35 · Q2 0:19+2.5 EPA−4% WP
- FAUTouchdown9 plays · 75 yds · from FAU 25 · Q2 2:30+2.1 EPA
- NAVYPunt5 plays · 13 yds · from NAVY 35 · Q2 5:26−1.0 EPA
- FAUTouchdown9 plays · 79 yds · from FAU 21 · Q2 9:43+2.3 EPA+10% WP
- Q4 1:46NAVYJ. Gutierrez run for 49 yds, for a TD (J. Gutierrez pass to V. Listorti GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)30–38
- Q4 3:12NAVYW. Adkinson run for -50 yds for a SAFETY22–38
- Q4 5:41NAVYJ. Gutierrez pass to Cha. Robinson for 8 yds, for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)20–38
- Q3 1:16NAVYJ. Gutierrez pass to J. Collins for 64 yds, for a TD (N. Bartley KICK)14–38
- Q3 2:39FAUC. Veltkamp pass to AJ Johnson for 5 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–38
- Q2 0:02FAUC. Rogers 60 yd FG GOOD7–31
- Q2 0:19FAUC. Veltkamp pass to D. Henry for 13 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–28
- Q2 5:26FAUC. Veltkamp pass to K. Valsin for 30 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–21
- Q1 6:59FAUC. Veltkamp pass to E. Messer for 36 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)7–14
- Q1 13:12NAVYB. Woodson run for 48 yds, for a TD (N. Bartley KICK)7–7
- Q1 14:18FAUC. Veltkamp pass to E. Messer for 76 yds, for a TD (C. Rogers KICK)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FAU Elo 1189, NAVY Elo 1550 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FAU -9.1 (72% to win) — 13.6 points clear of FAU's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NAVY | FAU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.1 (#101) | CORE overall | -12.1 (#119) |
| -2 / +6 | offense / defense | -2 / +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Florida Atlantic still can't hold up against the run
Navy won 42-32 in the last meeting, and nothing about Florida Atlantic's front or Navy's ground game has changed the shape of that afternoon.
Navy wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Navy, the more likely Navy wins.
Last season's 42-32 is the most useful thing on tape
That game is worth more than either opener because it was these two rosters against each other rather than against a mismatch. Florida Atlantic put up 32 in it. Navy's advantage showed up as a scoreboard race, not a smothering, and the 58.8 total is priced for the same kind of afternoon. Nothing in the projection asks Navy to look different from the version that already won this matchup.
Navy opened by beating Towson 42-15, scoring on 66.7% of its drives at 55.8 yards a possession and going three-and-out on 11.1%. That offense never had to dig out of its own end. Florida Atlantic lost 21-66 at Florida, scored on a quarter of its possessions and went three-and-out on 33.3%. The three-and-out rate is the number that travels to Saturday, because it describes a unit rather than a schedule.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Navy are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Navy is favored in large part because it still employs the people who went 11-2 and scored 31.5 a game. Florida Atlantic went 4-8 and did much of its restocking through the portal, which widens the error bars in both directions. The head-to-head is the cleaner read on both.
Navy's run game meets the softest thing on the field
Braxton Woodson projects for 39 to 110 rushing yards with a 66% chance of reaching the end zone. The opponent is a run defense that ranks 141st of 185 in what it surrenders on the ground. Navy's run game grades +2.27 in this matchup and its short-yardage work +2.11, which is how a lead gets built and then sat on.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Navy are battles it should win; toward Florida Atlantic are ones Florida Atlantic wins.
Staying on schedule is the quieter edge at +2.80, and it decides how long Florida Atlantic's offense stands on the sideline. Jackson Gutierrez adds 11 to 31 rushing yards inside that. Luke Hutchison's 13 to 43 receiving yards with a 47% touchdown chance describes Navy's passing game exactly: the shot that comes off a first down the defense didn't expect to be facing.
Caden Veltkamp is the edge Florida Atlantic owns
Florida Atlantic's only advantage on the board is explosive plays, +2.14, and it runs entirely through Veltkamp, who projects for 222 to 316 passing yards with an 83% chance of a touchdown against a Navy pass defense ranked 62nd of 185. Solid, not a wall. Easton Messer's 52 to 100 receiving yards and 36% touchdown chance is what it looks like when Florida Atlantic connects on two of those instead of one.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Navy's defense is below average, better than only 20% of FBS defenses.
The trouble is everything between the explosives. Big plays only produce points if the drives that don't hit end somewhere harmless, and last week the ones that missed ended immediately. Kaden Shields-Dutton projects for 21 to 59 rushing yards with a 41% touchdown chance against a run defense sitting 125th of 185. That is the soft spot Florida Atlantic has to lean on, because a Veltkamp who only throws on third-and-long is a Veltkamp Navy can play honestly.
Giveaways, not the talent gap, settle the number
Navy's win probability sits at 70%, and the number on the board is far closer than the rating gap implies: Navy covers 5.5 in 55% of projected outcomes. The efficiency mismatch is large, but a five-and-a-half-point spread against a team that scored 32 in the last meeting prices in the kind of shootout both offenses are built to produce.
Florida Atlantic needs a clean, High-scoring afternoon
The path doesn't require a different team, only a different sequence: hit two or three explosives before halftime, protect the football so the possession count stays even, and let the total do the rest. The under is only a 42% proposition, so points are the expectation on both sidelines. Florida Atlantic scored 21 against a far better defense than this one; the same output with even turnovers is a live dog at +5.5.
Navy wins this by being repetitive
Navy's job is unglamorous: run at a front ranked 141st of 185, stay ahead of the chains, and make Florida Atlantic assemble touchdowns in small pieces it hasn't shown it can string together. Florida Atlantic's job is to steal possessions. One takeaway turns Veltkamp's 222 to 316 yards from a stat line into a lead. Without that, this finishes the way the last one did: Navy in front, the scoreboard still moving late.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →