Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MURRTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 13:45MTSUKalen Woods 39 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)14–38
- Q4 14:53MTSUTerrence Brown 15 Yd Run (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)14–31
- Q3 4:47MURRJawaun Northington 1 Yd Run (Rocco Devita Kick)14–24
- Q3 11:17MTSUDominic Bourgeois 45 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 3:34MTSURoman Gagliano 22 Yd Run (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:18MURRTyrell Campbell 46 Yd Run (Rocco Devita Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:22MTSUCam'ron Lacy 22 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:46MTSUNeo Clifton 10 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)0–7
How the model called it
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
There was no drama to speak of. Middle Tennessee dismantles Murray State, 38-14 at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium. Middle Tennessee led from start to finish and never let Murray State within striking distance. Roman Gagliano threw for 200 yards on 26 attempts with two touchdowns and ran two times for 25 yards and one score.
- PassJim Ogle 11/16, 118 YDS
- RushTyrell Campbell 8 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDimitri Howard 3 REC, 49 YDS
- PassRoman Gagliano 20/26, 200 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAntonio Martin 15 CAR, 103 YDS
- RecCam'ron Lacy 8 REC, 118 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMTSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Murray State vs. Middle Tennessee?
Murray State 14, Middle Tennessee 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MTSU) was correct.
| MURR | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 290 | Total yards | 396 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 145 | Rushing yards | 196 |
| 16 | First downs | 21 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 3-7 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 13/22 | Comp/Att | 20/26 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 8.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-90 | Penalties | 10-81 |
| 34:18 | Possession | 25:42 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:59 MTSU go for it on 4th & 5 at MURR 16. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.52 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:45MTSUKalen Woods 39 Yd Fumble Return (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)14–38
- Q4 14:53MTSUTerrence Brown 15 Yd Run (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)14–31
- Q3 4:47MURRJawaun Northington 1 Yd Run (Rocco Devita Kick)14–24
- Q3 11:17MTSUDominic Bourgeois 45 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 3:34MTSURoman Gagliano 22 Yd Run (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:18MURRTyrell Campbell 46 Yd Run (Rocco Devita Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:22MTSUCam'ron Lacy 22 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:46MTSUNeo Clifton 10 Yd pass from Roman Gagliano (Dominic Bourgeois Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU -23.6 (92% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Roman Gagliano produced six of Middle Tennessee's eleven explosive plays
The scoreboard says rout. The interesting part is HOW — and whether it means anything.
The big plays only went one way
Middle Tennessee produced 11 plays of 15+ yards to Murray State's 5, led by Roman Gagliano (involved in 6), Cam'Ron Lacy (involved in 4) and Terrence Brown (involved in 3). Middle Tennessee scored on 62% of its drives to Murray State's 33%: Roman Gagliano (18 pts), Cam'Ron Lacy (6 pts) and Neo Clifton (6 pts). Stacked together, it was never close.
The difference-makers
Roman Gagliano threw for 200 yards on 26 attempts with two touchdowns and ran two times for 25 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. Cam'Ron Lacy caught eight passes for 118 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with two third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Neo Clifton caught two passes for 37 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20. For Murray State, Jim Ogle threw for 118 yards on 16 attempts and ran one times for 9 yards, including a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Tyrell Campbell ran eight times for 75 yards and one score. Jawaun Northington ran three times for 8 yards and one score, with that score from inside the 20. DJ Taylor was the disruptive one for Middle Tennessee: 1 forced fumble, 1 PBU, 2 tackles.
What Murray State has to fix
The problems had names: Tyrell Campbell (1 lost fumble).
How we got here
Middle Tennessee struck first through Roman Gagliano, led 21-7 at the half and Middle Tennessee got the final points on a late touchdown by Tyrell Campbell.
The number
The closing line had Middle Tennessee -22.5. Middle Tennessee covered. The total was 55.5; the teams combined for 52, an under. Roman Gagliano accounted for 18 of Middle Tennessee's points.
What it means
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Business handled for Middle Tennessee. The question now is whether the opponent told us anything. Jawaun Northington was responsible for 6 of Murray State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →