Missouri State vs. Jacksonville State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Missouri State gets at Jacksonville State: 8th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 56th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Jacksonville State gets at Missouri State: 55th at throwing it, against a unit 124th at defending the pass. Jacksonville State is also 63rd on first and second down, against a unit 130th.
How
MOSTattacks
JXST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 34% this season, 1 game
MOST1.32#8 of 138JXST1.18#56 of 138
HowJXSTattacksMOST
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · 25% this season, 2 games
JXST+0.57#55 of 138MOST+0.31#124 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · 25% this season, 2 games
JXST50%#63 of 138MOST52%#130 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · 25% this season, 2 games
JXST44%#54 of 138MOST47%#119 of 138
The two teams
Missouri State
Missouri State is in year 1 under Casey Woods. The strengths are offensive, led by 8th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 135th at keeping a clean pocket, and they are 134th at staying out of the backfield.
Missouri State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 17% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.32#8 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss15.0%#135 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line8.6%#134 of 138
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.13#131 of 138
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is in year 2 under Charles Kelly. The way in is 109th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Jacksonville State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 28% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.00#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1426, MOST Elo 1284 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -1.2 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MOST101st56thJXSTJXST65th76thMOSTThrough the air
MOST109th10thJXSTJXST60th59thMOSTOn the ground
MOST87th118thJXSTJXST94th114thMOSTStaying on the field
MOST96th97thJXSTJXST16th54thMOSTTaking care of it
MOST74th46thJXSTJXST104th46thMOST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MOST | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.2 (#125) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#98) |
| -10 / +6 | offense / defense | -2 / +5 |
| 0.00 | points / drive | 1.42 |
| 4.36 | allowed / drive | 2.30 |
| 80% | three-and-outs | 13% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Missouri State vs. Jacksonville State?
Gridpex's model favors Jacksonville State with a 52% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Missouri State vs. Jacksonville State?
The model projects Jacksonville State by 1.2.
What time is Missouri State vs. Jacksonville State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET, at AmFirst Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →