Jacksonville State vs. Delaware Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Jacksonville State gets at Delaware: 49th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 116th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Delaware gets at Jacksonville State: 32nd on first and second down, against a unit 87th on early downs defensively. Jacksonville State is also 55th at throwing it, against a unit 92nd.
How
JXSTattacks
DEL
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 55% this season, 2 games
JXST1.30#49 of 138DEL1.27#116 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 25% this season, 2 games
JXST+0.57#55 of 138DEL+0.17#92 of 138
HowDELattacksJXST
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · 20% this season, 2 games
DEL49%#32 of 138JXST46%#87 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 47% this season, 2 games
DEL1.48#13 of 138JXST1.18#56 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 20% this season, 2 games
DEL39%#46 of 138JXST41%#87 of 138
The two teams
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is in year 2 under Charles Kelly. The way in is 109th at turning trips inside the 40 into points.
Jacksonville State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 28% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points3.00#109 of 138
Delaware
Delaware is in year 2 under Ryan Carty. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 13th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 125th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 116th at keeping everything in front of them.
Delaware has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.48#13 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground30%#28 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down49%#32 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line28.6%#125 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.27#116 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss24.1%#109 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DEL Elo 1411, JXST Elo 1426 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DEL -11.4 (77% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
JXST65th35thDELDEL58th56thJXSTThrough the air
JXST60th87thDELDEL12th11thJXSTOn the ground
JXST91st21stDELDEL117th119thJXSTStaying on the field
JXST15th38thDELDEL110th96thJXSTTaking care of it
JXST104th46thDELDEL75th46thJXST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | DEL | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.6 (#98) | CORE overall | -4.3 (#88) |
| -2 / +5 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 1.00 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Jacksonville State vs. Delaware?
Gridpex's model favors Delaware with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Jacksonville State vs. Delaware?
The model projects Delaware by 11.4.
What time is Jacksonville State vs. Delaware and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 3:30 PM ET, at Delaware Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →