Illinois vs. UCLA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Illinois gets at UCLA: 21st on first and second down, against a unit 131st on early downs defensively. UCLA projects no clear way in against Illinois. Illinois is also 26th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 134th.
How
ILLattacks
UCLA
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
ILL#21 of 138UCLA#131 of 138 - 2
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
ILL#26 of 138UCLA#134 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
ILL#38 of 138UCLA#129 of 138
The two teams
Illinois
Illinois is in year 6 under Bret Bielema, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 21st on first and second down. The way in is 134th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 104th at keeping opponents off schedule through the air.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Illinois has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensefirst and second down#21projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#26projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#30projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#134projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#104projected
UCLA
UCLA is in year 1 under Bob Chesney. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 134th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 131st on early downs defensively.
UCLA has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#129projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1438, ILL Elo 1587 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -6.3 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ILL57th62ndUCLAUCLA10th104thILLThrough the air
ILL70th124thUCLAUCLA103rd80thILLOn the ground
ILL93rd77thUCLAUCLA17th118thILLStaying on the field
ILL62nd124thUCLAUCLA24th97thILLTaking care of it
ILL31st30thUCLAUCLA31st88thILL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 6–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| ILL | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#45) | CORE overall | +12.9 (#29) |
| +7 / +1 | offense / defense | +9 / -4 |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Illinois vs. UCLA?
Gridpex's model favors UCLA with a 66% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Illinois vs. UCLA?
The model projects UCLA by 6.3.
What time is Illinois vs. UCLA and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET, at Rose Bowl.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →