Hawai'i vs. Nevada Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Hawai'i gets at Nevada: 59th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 112th at generating havoc. Where Nevada gets at Hawai'i: 58th in the push up front, against a unit 128th at holding the line of scrimmage. Hawai'i is also 65th in the push up front, against a unit 107th.
How
HAWattacks
NEV
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 33% this season, 3 games
HAW17.0%#59 of 138NEV14.8%#112 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 32% this season, 3 games
HAW3.10#65 of 138NEV2.85#107 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · 33% this season, 3 games
HAW37%#76 of 138NEV44%#114 of 138
HowNEVattacksHAW
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 2 games in
NEV3.92#58 of 138HAW3.28#128 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · 20% this season, 2 games
NEV+0.37#66 of 138HAW+0.24#109 of 138
The two teams
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 130th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 126th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 34% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.6%#130 of 138
- Offenserunning it-0.05#126 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.24#109 of 138
Nevada
Nevada is in year 3 under Jeff Choate. The strengths are defensive, led by 2nd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 133rd at throwing it, and they are 125th on early downs defensively.
Nevada has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.98#2 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensethrowing it+0.08#133 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down49%#125 of 138
- Offensesurviving second and twelve34%#123 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1462, HAW Elo 1432 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +13.5 (20% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
HAW124th53rdNEVNEV51st119thHAWThrough the air
HAW42nd60thNEVNEV118th96thHAWOn the ground
HAW135th106thNEVNEV16th116thHAWStaying on the field
HAW71st76thNEVNEV79th108thHAWTaking care of it
HAW74th76thNEVNEV124th46thHAW
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNevada leads 14–13 · Hawai'i has won 3 straight · 26% have been one-possession games
| HAW | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#123) | CORE overall | -0.7 (#72) |
| -10 / +6 | offense / defense | +0 / +1 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 4.46 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +17 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Hawai'i vs. Nevada?
Gridpex's model favors Hawai'i with a 80% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Hawai'i vs. Nevada?
The model projects Hawai'i by 13.5.
What time is Hawai'i vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Mackay Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →