Hawai'i vs. Arizona State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Arizona State gets at Hawai'i: 18th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 79th at keeping everything in front of them. Hawai'i projects no clear way in against Arizona State. Arizona State is also 79th in the push up front, against a unit 128th.
How
ASUattacks
HAW
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 43% this season, 1 game
ASU1.46#18 of 138HAW1.26#79 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected · 1 game in
ASU3.10#79 of 138HAW3.28#128 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
ASU+0.16#67 of 138HAW+0.24#109 of 138
The two teams
Hawai'i
Hawai'i throws it: Timmy Chang's offenses have been heavily pass-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 130th at stuffing runs at the line, and they are 126th at running it.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Hawai'i has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 34% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Defensegetting stopped at the line12.6%#130 of 138
- Offenserunning it-0.05#126 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.24#109 of 138
Arizona State
Arizona State is in year 4 under Kenny Dillingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 18th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+8.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 18% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.46#18 of 138
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.01#19 of 138
- Defensesurviving second and twelve11%#30 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1531, HAW Elo 1432 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -2.4 (56% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
HAW124th29thASUASU15th118thHAWThrough the air
HAW42nd14thASUASU8th97thHAWOn the ground
HAW134th51stASUASU57th117thHAWStaying on the field
HAW71st22ndASUASU92nd107thHAWTaking care of it
HAW75th108thASUASU124th46thHAW
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| HAW | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.0 (#123) | CORE overall | +11.1 (#32) |
| -10 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / -9 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 0.46 |
| 1.91 | allowed / drive | 2.83 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +17 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Hawai'i vs. Arizona State?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona State with a 56% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Hawai'i vs. Arizona State?
The model projects Arizona State by 2.4.
What time is Hawai'i vs. Arizona State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Mountain America Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →