Florida A&M vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLORTeam statsMIA
- Q4 6:40FLORCaleb McKenzie 72 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Caison Kick)7–77
- Q3 3:31MIAJavian Mallory 52 Yd Run (Will Rocha Kick)0–77
- Q3 5:49MIAVance Spafford 21 Yd pass from Luke Nickel (Will Rocha Kick)0–70
- Q3 9:54MIAVandrevius Jacobs 33 Yd pass from Luke Nickel (Will Rocha Kick)0–63
- Q3 12:36MIASomourian Wingo 47 Yd pass from Luke Nickel (Will Rocha Kick)0–56
- Q2 0:46MIAJavian Mallory 11 Yd Run (Will Rocha Kick)0–49
- Q2 6:27MIACooper Barkate 9 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–42
- Q2 10:10MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–35
- Q2 14:54MIAMalachi Toney 19 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–28
- Q1 6:17MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–21
- Q1 11:11MIAJoshua Moore 55 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:37MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 46 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
How it was won
Miami stayed on schedule on 71% of its snaps and added 0.73 points per pass, while Florida A&M succeeded on just 25% and lost ground.
Miami turnover
Miami committed only one turnover and just one penalty, while Florida A&M had none but five penalties that stalled drives.
Betting line
Miami entered as a 59.5‑point favorite and exceeded expectations, covering the spread by ten points.
Game pace
The game ran at a 29.8‑second‑per‑play tempo, noticeably slower than the league average of 24.5 seconds.
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = FLOR ahead, below = MIA ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassArmond Parker 3/7, 37 YDS
- RushDustin Fletcher 8 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecChase Gillespie 3 REC, 20 YDS
- PassDarian Mensah 14/15, 252 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJavian Mallory 10 CAR, 142 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMalachi Toney 4 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida A&M vs. Miami?
Florida A&M 7, Miami 77.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| FLOR | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 107 | Total yards | 856 |
| 70 | Passing yards | 426 |
| 37 | Rushing yards | 430 |
| 4 | First downs | 42 |
| 1-14 | 3rd down | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/26 | Comp/Att | 27/29 |
| 2.7 | Yards per pass | 14.7 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 9.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-54 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 23:00 | Possession | 37:00 |
- Q4 6:40FLORCaleb McKenzie 72 Yd Fumble Return (Gabriel Caison Kick)7–77
- Q3 3:31MIAJavian Mallory 52 Yd Run (Will Rocha Kick)0–77
- Q3 5:49MIAVance Spafford 21 Yd pass from Luke Nickel (Will Rocha Kick)0–70
- Q3 9:54MIAVandrevius Jacobs 33 Yd pass from Luke Nickel (Will Rocha Kick)0–63
- Q3 12:36MIASomourian Wingo 47 Yd pass from Luke Nickel (Will Rocha Kick)0–56
- Q2 0:46MIAJavian Mallory 11 Yd Run (Will Rocha Kick)0–49
- Q2 6:27MIACooper Barkate 9 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–42
- Q2 10:10MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 4 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–35
- Q2 14:54MIAMalachi Toney 19 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–28
- Q1 6:17MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–21
- Q1 11:11MIAJoshua Moore 55 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:37MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 46 Yd Run (Jake Weinberg Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -52.7 (100% to win) — 6.8 points clear of FLOR's market line of -59.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →