Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Delaware gets at Middle Tennessee: 36th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 132nd at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Middle Tennessee gets at Delaware: 78th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 136th at keeping everything in front of them. Delaware is also 34th on first and second down, against a unit 119th.
How
DELattacks
MTSU
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
DEL#36 of 138MTSU#132 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
DEL#34 of 138MTSU#119 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
DEL#62 of 138MTSU#127 of 138
HowMTSUattacksDEL
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MTSU#78 of 138DEL#136 of 138
The two teams
Delaware
Delaware is in year 2 under Ryan Carty. The strengths are offensive, led by 34th on first and second down. The way in is 136th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 108th at defending the run.
Delaware has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensefirst and second down#34projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#136projected
- Defenserunning it#108projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#106projected
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is in year 3 under Derek Mason, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 132nd at defending the pass, and they are 127th at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −30.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Middle Tennessee has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#132projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#127projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#125projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1278, DEL Elo 1404 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +11.8 (23% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
DEL62nd106thMTSUMTSU14th42ndDELThrough the air
DEL15th44thMTSUMTSU93rd86thDELOn the ground
DEL113th94thMTSUMTSU47th29thDELStaying on the field
DEL108th48thMTSUMTSU67th46thDELTaking care of it
DEL95th88thMTSUMTSU1st30thDEL
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| DEL | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.0 (#98) | CORE overall | -8.7 (#104) |
| -2 / +5 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee?
Gridpex's model favors Delaware with a 77% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee?
The model projects Delaware by 11.8.
What time is Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee and what channel is it on?
Tue, Oct 13, 7:00 PM ET, at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →