Cal Poly vs. San José State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CAL Team statsSJSU
- Q4 7:20SJSUCarson Clark 41 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)20–30
- Q4 11:59SJSUTrajan Sinatra 40 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 14:29CAL Misa Paiau 1 Yd Run (Josue Lopez Kick)20–20
- Q3 4:29SJSUCooper Hoch 2 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)13–20
- Q3 12:41CAL Jaden Green 6 Yd pass from Anthony Grigsby Jr. (Josue Lopez Kick)13–13
- Q2 0:02SJSUTrajan Sinatra 32 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q2 5:07SJSUTrajan Sinatra 44 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 11:43SJSUCarson Clark 5 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)6–7
- Q2 14:03CAL Fidel Pitts 2 Yd Run (Josue Lopez PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = CAL ahead, below = SJSU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassAnthony Grigsby Jr. 24/40, 249 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJaden Green 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecFidel Pitts 5 REC, 103 YDS
- PassLuke Weaver 22/34, 238 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJabari Bates 27 CAR, 163 YDS
- RecCarson Clark 8 REC, 81 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Cal Poly vs. San José State?
Cal Poly 20, San José State 30.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SJSU) was correct.
| CAL | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 493 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 238 |
| 91 | Rushing yards | 255 |
| 20 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 28:58 | Possession | 31:02 |
- Q4 7:20SJSUCarson Clark 41 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)20–30
- Q4 11:59SJSUTrajan Sinatra 40 Yd Field Goal 20–23
- Q4 14:29CAL Misa Paiau 1 Yd Run (Josue Lopez Kick)20–20
- Q3 4:29SJSUCooper Hoch 2 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)13–20
- Q3 12:41CAL Jaden Green 6 Yd pass from Anthony Grigsby Jr. (Josue Lopez Kick)13–13
- Q2 0:02SJSUTrajan Sinatra 32 Yd Field Goal 6–13
- Q2 5:07SJSUTrajan Sinatra 44 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 11:43SJSUCarson Clark 5 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Trajan Sinatra Kick)6–7
- Q2 14:03CAL Fidel Pitts 2 Yd Run (Josue Lopez PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects SJSU -14.1 (80% to win) — 7.4 points clear of CAL 's market line of -21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →