Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arkansas gets at Vanderbilt: 34th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 108th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Vanderbilt gets at Arkansas: 2nd at running it, against a unit 127th at defending the run. Vanderbilt is also 3rd at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 127th.
How
ARKattacks
VAN
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
ARK#34 of 138VAN#108 of 138
HowVANattacksARK
- 1
Run it
running it · projected
VAN#2 of 138ARK#127 of 138 - 2
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
VAN#3 of 138ARK#127 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
VAN#4 of 138ARK#120 of 138
The two teams
Arkansas
Arkansas throws it: Ryan Silverfield's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 19th at running it. The way in is 131st at shutting down the ground game, and they are 127th at closing out passing downs.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −19.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arkansas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#19projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#23projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#127projected
- Defensethrowing it#120projected
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is in year 6 under Clark Lea, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at running it. The way in is 108th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+4.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −12.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Vanderbilt has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#2projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#2projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#3projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (VAN Elo 1746, ARK Elo 1490 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects VAN -10.5 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ARK128th48thVANVAN96th98thARKThrough the air
ARK52nd52ndVANVAN72nd68thARKOn the ground
ARK118th28thVANVAN89th42ndARKStaying on the field
ARK34th4thVANVAN104th48thARKTaking care of it
ARK104th76thVANVAN21st76thARK
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArkansas leads 7–3 · 50% have been one-possession games
| ARK | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.0 (#91) | CORE overall | +10.7 (#35) |
| +3 / +8 | offense / defense | +6 / -5 |
| 1.00 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 4.20 | allowed / drive | 1.00 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +11 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt?
Gridpex's model favors Vanderbilt with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt?
The model projects Vanderbilt by 10.5.
What time is Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at FirstBank Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →