Arizona State vs. UCF Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Arizona State gets at UCF: 69th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 121st at shutting down the ground game. Where UCF gets at Arizona State: 6th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 45th at keeping everything in front of them. Arizona State is also 84th on first and second down, against a unit 123rd.
How
ASUattacks
UCF
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
ASU#69 of 138UCF#121 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
ASU#84 of 138UCF#123 of 138
HowUCFattacksASU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UCF#6 of 138ASU#45 of 138
The two teams
Arizona State
Arizona State is in year 4 under Kenny Dillingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 30th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+8.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −7.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Arizona State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenserunning it#30projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#33projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#33projected
UCF
UCF is in year 2 under Scott Frost, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 6th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 130th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 123rd on early downs defensively.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.2% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UCF has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#6projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#7projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#130projected
- Defensefirst and second down#123projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#121projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCF Elo 1468, ASU Elo 1531 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCF +2.3 (45% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
ASU15th16thUCFUCF41st29thASUThrough the air
ASU8th29thUCFUCF99th14thASUOn the ground
ASU58th57thUCFUCF52nd49thASUStaying on the field
ASU92nd17thUCFUCF64th22ndASUTaking care of it
ASU124th76thUCFUCF21st109thASU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ASU | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.1 (#32) | CORE overall | +3.6 (#57) |
| +2 / -9 | offense / defense | -5 / -9 |
| 0.46 | points / drive | 0.46 |
| 2.83 | allowed / drive | 0.91 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Arizona State vs. UCF?
Gridpex's model favors Arizona State with a 55% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Arizona State vs. UCF?
The model projects Arizona State by 2.3.
What time is Arizona State vs. UCF and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →