Weber State vs. Northwestern State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Weber State0-1
▸
Northwestern State0-2
Final
Harry Turpin Stadium
WEBETeam statsNORT
433Total yards157
327Pass73
106Rush84
20First downs9
3-153rd down2-15
1Turnovers1
30:27Possession29:33
- Q4 10:53WEBESloan Calder 20 Yd Field Goal 39–0
- Q3 7:57WEBETeam Safety 36–0
- Q3 12:14WEBEJayleen Record 33 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)34–0
- Q2 2:40WEBEJaden Thrower 17 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)27–0
- Q2 5:28WEBESloan Calder 28 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 10:47WEBEDamon Bankston 7 Yd Run (Sloan Calder Kick)17–0
- Q1 0:19WEBEJacob Sharp 35 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)10–0
- Q1 4:22WEBEKyle Thompson 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Market line
WEBE −31.5
Against the number
WEBE covered
line WEBE −31.5
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
NORT (top)WEBE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 0%
Closing line
WEBE −31.5
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
WEBE 39 – 0 NORT
Weber State
- PassRichie Munoz 19/31, 327 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDamon Bankston 10 CAR, 56 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob Sharp 8 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
Northwestern State
- PassJ.T. Fayard 13/24, 68 YDS
- RushKolbe Burrell 5 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecTwon Hines 3 REC, 27 YDS
26.6sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
135
Points / snap
0.29
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWEBE up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 336 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WEBE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Weber State vs. Northwestern State?
Weber State 39, Northwestern State 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked NORT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
WEBE
NORT
41%
Success rate
33%
0.34
EPA / pass
-0.22
-0.04
EPA / rush
0.03
47%
Early-down success
36%
42%
Pass success
25%
40%
Rush success
41%
16%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
5%
3%
Stuffed rush rate
3%
51%
Pass rate
50%
7.7
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.7
WEBE
7.7 yards to go on 3rd down
71 scrimmage snaps
NORT
7.7 yards to go on 3rd down
64 scrimmage snaps
| WEBE | NORT | |
|---|---|---|
| 433 | Total yards | 157 |
| 327 | Passing yards | 73 |
| 106 | Rushing yards | 84 |
| 20 | First downs | 9 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 2-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/31 | Comp/Att | 15/26 |
| 10.5 | Yards per pass | 2.8 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 6-75 |
| 30:27 | Possession | 29:33 |
WEBE
8/10 with the model
−1.2 pts · −0.0% win prob
NORT
10/12 with the model
−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q4 10:53 WEBE field goal on 4th & 3 at NORT 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishWEBE 7/15 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 1/16 scoring drives
NORTFUM4 pl, 21 yds· own 10Q1
WEBEMISS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 23Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q1
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 29Q1
NORTPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 6Q1
WEBEFG8 pl, 52 yds· own 36Q1
NORTPUNT5 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q1
WEBETD2 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1
NORTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q1
WEBETD9 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 19Q2
WEBEFG9 pl, 29 yds· opp 40Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 37Q2
WEBETD3 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2
NORTPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q2
WEBEPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q2
NORTEND2 pl, -10 yds· midfieldQ2
WEBETD5 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q3
NORTSAF2 pl, -3 yds· own 3Q3
WEBEDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 21Q3
NORTPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 12Q3
WEBEPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 48Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q3
WEBEFG10 pl, 52 yds· own 45Q4
NORTPUNT5 pl, 9 yds· own 24Q4
WEBEINT4 pl, 16 yds· own 28Q4
NORTDOWNS7 pl, 21 yds· own 45Q4
WEBEPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 34Q4
NORTEND3 pl, 56 yds· own 19Q4
- Q4 10:53WEBESloan Calder 20 Yd Field Goal 39–0
- Q3 7:57WEBETeam Safety 36–0
- Q3 12:14WEBEJayleen Record 33 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)34–0
- Q2 2:40WEBEJaden Thrower 17 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)27–0
- Q2 5:28WEBESloan Calder 28 Yd Field Goal 20–0
- Q2 10:47WEBEDamon Bankston 7 Yd Run (Sloan Calder Kick)17–0
- Q1 0:19WEBEJacob Sharp 35 Yd pass from Richie Munoz (Sloan Calder Kick)10–0
- Q1 4:22WEBEKyle Thompson 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →