Mississippi Valley State vs. Nicholls: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Mississippi Valley State0-3

00

Nicholls0-2

▸0066

Final

Manning Field at John L. Guidry Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
MISS	0	0	0	0	0
NICH	21	24	14	7	66

MISSTeam statsNICH

159Total yards657

166Pass202

-7Rush455

8First downs28

0-123rd down8-15

6Turnovers1

23:20Possession36:40

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:34NICHCorey Warren Jr. 12 Yd Run (Ray Vallee Kick)0–66
• Q3 2:37NICHKaraaz Johnson 10 Yd pass from Jakob Foss (Ray Vallee Kick)0–59
• Q3 9:00NICHMiequle Brock 68 Yd Run (Ray Vallee Kick)0–52
• Q2 2:07NICHGabe Showalter 37 Yd Field Goal 0–45
• Q2 3:56NICHCorey Warren Jr. 28 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–42
• Q2 8:09NICHMiequle Brock 80 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–35
• Q2 14:21NICHCollin Guggenheim 5 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:57NICHQuincy Brown 6 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–21
• Q1 10:39NICHEan Rodrigue 34 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:19NICHMiequle Brock 33 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

NICH −30

Against the number

NICH covered

line NICH −30

What the numbers say

• MISS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NICH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.9

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NICH 100%50%MISS 100%

Kickoff147 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NICH (top)MISS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NICH 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NICH −30

Closing total

48.5

Model line

—

Actual result

MISS 0 – 66 NICH

Leaders

Mississippi Valley State

• PassRuben Lee II 7/16, 122 YDS, 1 INT
• RushTy'Jarian Williams 5 CAR, 15 YDS
• RecNate Rembert 6 REC, 106 YDS

Nicholls

• PassPat McQuaide 15/20, 184 YDS, 2 TD
• RushMiequle Brock 8 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
• RecMiequle Brock 2 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

130

Points / snap

0.51

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NICH up 59 entering the 4th quarter. Across 66 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NICH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOle Miss vs Mercer73-7WCoastal Carolina vs Duquesne66-7WArkansas-Pine Bluff vs Little Rock59-0WUCLA vs North Carolina Central59-7WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

15 calls

NICH gave up 2.3 points to the model on fourth down.MISS 5/9 · NICH 2/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Mississippi Valley State vs. Nicholls?

Mississippi Valley State 0, Nicholls 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NICH) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

MISS

NICH

18%

Success rate

59%

-0.39

EPA / pass

0.54

-0.37

EPA / rush

0.58

22%

Early-down success

58%

20%

Pass success

50%

14%

Rush success

62%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

75%

Pass rate

29%

8.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.9

MISS

8.3 yards to go on 3rd down

55 scrimmage snaps

NICH

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

MISS		NICH
159	Total yards	657
166	Passing yards	202
-7	Rushing yards	455
8	First downs	28
0-12	3rd down	8-15
1-2	4th down	1-2
12/37	Comp/Att	17/22
4.5	Yards per pass	9.2
-0.4	Yards per rush	8.0
6	Turnovers	1
3-25	Penalties	5-55
23:20	Possession	36:40

Fourth downs

15 calls

MISS

5/9 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

NICH

2/5 with the model

−2.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 11:40 NICH go for it on 4th & 29 at NICH 6. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.56 points.

Every call, priced (15)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

MISS 0/15 scoring drives← own end zone →NICH 10/15 scoring drives

NICHTD4 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1

MISSPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 21Q1

NICHTD4 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1

MISSPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 22Q1

NICHTD11 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1

MISSPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 12Q1

NICHTD7 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q1

MISSINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

NICHFUM3 pl, -5 yds· opp 30Q2

MISSINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 28Q2

NICHPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· midfieldQ2

MISSPUNT5 pl, 30 yds· own 20Q2

NICHTD1 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

MISSINT3 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2

NICHTD6 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q2

MISSINT2 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

NICHFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 25Q2

MISSPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2

NICHEND3 pl, 17 yds· own 11Q2

MISSPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 17Q3

NICHDOWNS4 pl, -17 yds· own 25Q3

MISSDOWNS4 pl, 2 yds· opp 8Q3

NICHTD5 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q3

MISSPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 47Q3

NICHTD11 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3

MISSPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

NICHTD8 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3

MISSINT6 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q4

NICHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 20Q4

MISSINT9 pl, 55 yds· own 26Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:34NICHCorey Warren Jr. 12 Yd Run (Ray Vallee Kick)0–66
• Q3 2:37NICHKaraaz Johnson 10 Yd pass from Jakob Foss (Ray Vallee Kick)0–59
• Q3 9:00NICHMiequle Brock 68 Yd Run (Ray Vallee Kick)0–52
• Q2 2:07NICHGabe Showalter 37 Yd Field Goal 0–45
• Q2 3:56NICHCorey Warren Jr. 28 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–42
• Q2 8:09NICHMiequle Brock 80 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–35
• Q2 14:21NICHCollin Guggenheim 5 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–28
• Q1 3:57NICHQuincy Brown 6 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–21
• Q1 10:39NICHEan Rodrigue 34 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:19NICHMiequle Brock 33 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →