Western Carolina vs. Eastern Kentucky: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Western Carolina

▸0027

Eastern Kentucky

0024

Final

Roy Kidd Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WEST	7	0	7	13	27
EAST	11	3	0	10	24

WESTTeam statsEAST

551Total yards509

340Pass366

211Rush143

24First downs26

4-123rd down4-12

2Turnovers1

24:28Possession35:32

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:25WESTBranson Adams 8 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum PAT failed)27–24
• Q4 4:18EASTPatrick Nations 20 Yd Field Goal 21–24
• Q4 11:32EASTJaden Smith 14 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)21–21
• Q4 14:24WESTDesmond Reid 1 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)21–14
• Q3 9:11WESTCensere Lee 15 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)14–14
• Q2 0:00EASTPatrick Nations 34 Yd Field Goal 7–14
• Q1 2:40WESTCensere Lee 45 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–11
• Q1 6:17EASTPatrick Nations 41 Yd Field Goal 0–11
• Q1 11:28EASTJackson Hensley 6 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Cameron Hergott Pass to Mena Mannan for Two-Point Conversion)0–8

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

EAST 100%50%WEST 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

EAST (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: EAST 0%

Leaders

Western Carolina

• PassCole Gonzales 18/33, 340 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
• RushDesmond Reid 29 CAR, 177 YDS, 1 TD
• RecDavid White Jr. 2 REC, 94 YDS

Eastern Kentucky

• PassParker McKinney 27/46, 366 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
• RushParker McKinney 8 CAR, 59 YDS
• RecJaden Smith 10 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

19.1sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

152

Points / snap

0.34

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

50%

EAST win rate

How often the home team won from here

Most comparable games

LSam Houston vs Air Force3-13LArkansas vs BYU31-38LAbilene Christian vs Incarnate Word10-24WSt. Thomas (MN) vs Morehead State35-28LMiddle Tennessee vs Colorado State23-31

Fourth downs

16 calls

EAST gave up 1.5 points to the model on fourth down.WEST 5/7 · EAST 6/8 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Carolina vs. Eastern Kentucky?

Western Carolina 27, Eastern Kentucky 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked EAST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEST

EAST

51%

Success rate

43%

0.56

EPA / pass

0.30

0.05

EPA / rush

0.10

54%

Early-down success

46%

47%

Pass success

43%

55%

Rush success

42%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

7%

47%

Pass rate

61%

5.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.2

WEST

5.6 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

EAST

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEST		EAST
551	Total yards	509
340	Passing yards	366
211	Rushing yards	143
24	First downs	26
4-12	3rd down	4-12
1-1	4th down	0-0
18/33	Comp/Att	27/46
10.3	Yards per pass	8.0
5.9	Yards per rush	4.9
2	Turnovers	1
6-45	Penalties	6-59
24:28	Possession	35:32

Fourth downs

16 calls

WEST

5/7 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

EAST

6/8 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 4:18 EAST field goal on 4th & 3 at WEST 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEST 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →EAST 4/13 scoring drives

EASTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

EASTFG11 pl, 56 yds· own 20Q1

EASTPUNT8 pl, 40 yds· own 19Q1

WESTPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 44Q1

WESTTD5 pl, 82 yds· opp 45Q1

WESTPUNT6 pl, 22 yds· own 20Q2

EASTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 23Q2

WESTMISS7 pl, 51 yds· own 31Q2

EASTPUNT6 pl, 27 yds· own 20Q2

EASTFG5 pl, 69 yds· own 14Q2

WESTFUM8 pl, 30 yds· opp 17Q2

WESTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3

EASTPUNT6 pl, 12 yds· own 20Q3

WESTTD5 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3

WESTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 36Q3

EASTPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 29Q3

WESTTD9 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q3

EASTINT3 pl, 14 yds· opp 42Q3

WESTPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 25Q4

EASTFG10 pl, 83 yds· own 14Q4

WESTINT5 pl, 37 yds· own 25Q4

EASTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 27Q4

WESTTD8 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q4

EASTMISS4 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q4

EASTTD6 pl, 38 yds· opp 14Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:25WESTBranson Adams 8 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum PAT failed)27–24
• Q4 4:18EASTPatrick Nations 20 Yd Field Goal 21–24
• Q4 11:32EASTJaden Smith 14 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Patrick Nations Kick)21–21
• Q4 14:24WESTDesmond Reid 1 Yd Run (Richard McCollum Kick)21–14
• Q3 9:11WESTCensere Lee 15 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)14–14
• Q2 0:00EASTPatrick Nations 34 Yd Field Goal 7–14
• Q1 2:40WESTCensere Lee 45 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Richard McCollum Kick)7–11
• Q1 6:17EASTPatrick Nations 41 Yd Field Goal 0–11
• Q1 11:28EASTJackson Hensley 6 Yd pass from Parker McKinney (Cameron Hergott Pass to Mena Mannan for Two-Point Conversion)0–8

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →